Sep 12, 2022Liked by Nik Shah

Agree with the heading that once doesn’t mean another and quite often doesn’t, there are many factors. Impossible to know where anything is headed but not sure I agree that prices will appreciate.

But if housing crashes (-5 to -15%) the fed can’t just reverse course if they actually believe in fighting inflation and inflation proves sticky.

Of course, they can reverse course but strap in for inflation. Also strap in for a dragging economy where no one continues to want to work. Politically we have continued to announce stimulus and other stimulating policies. Why work for the same wage when you can just wait for the next stimulus or stock bump with low rates and QE?

If monthly payments equal affordability than today a 550k house is the same monthly payment as 800k (estimated, not sure what rates are exactly as of post)

But your discussion points have way more data, I’m just off put by how unaffordable and speculative real estate has been in the last 2 years.

Greta analysis 🙏 thank you

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Agreed. Fed may wait to reverse course on rates. Thanks for your candid perspective!

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